IPO GMP Track Record
Everyone asks the same question about grey market premium: how reliable is it? Most sites quote the number and stop there. We keep every GMP reading for the IPOs we track, so once an IPO lists we can put the last GMP before bidding closed next to the price the shares really opened at, and see how far apart they were.
This page shows that comparison for every IPO we tracked through to listing, with the overall hit rate and the average miss. It describes the past. It does not predict the next IPO, and it is not investment advice. The calculation is explained at the bottom of the page.
How GMP did
Across 12 IPOs that listed after we tracked them
- IPOs compared
- 12
- tracked through to listing
- Direction right
- 67%
- 8 of 12: above or below the issue price
- Within 5 points
- 58%
- 7 of 12 listed within 5 percentage points of the GMP
- Average miss
- 6.6 pts
- median 2.7 pts
- GMP overstated by
- 5.2 pts
- on average, listing gain compared with GMP
Mainboard
9 compared so far. Figures appear once there are 10; a handful of IPOs says too little.
SME
3 compared so far. Figures appear once there are 10; a handful of IPOs says too little.
Every IPO compared
Newest listing first. GMP and listing gain are both against the issue price.
How this is calculated
For each IPO we tracked through to listing, we take the last GMP reading stored on or before the closing date (and no more than two days before it) and compare it with the price the shares listed at, both measured against the issue price (the upper end of the price band). The direction is right when both are above the issue price or both are below it. The error is GMP % minus listing gain %, in percentage points.
What the comparison does not capture: GMP moves through the day and the day after the close, so a different reading would give a different error; the listing price is one moment of listing day; and a small sample can be flattered or hurt by a few unusual IPOs. Only IPOs this site tracked before they closed are counted, and a missing figure is left out, never estimated. Read how we collect GMP on how it works, use the GMP calculator to turn a GMP into rupees, see how IPOs listed overall in the IPO statistics, or browse the past IPOs archive.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is IPO GMP?
It is an unofficial guess from an unregulated market, so it is only as accurate as the people quoting it. This page measures it: for each IPO we tracked to listing, it compares the last GMP before bidding closed with the price the shares listed at, and shows how often GMP had the direction right and how far off it was on average.
How is the hit rate measured?
Direction is right when the GMP and the listing price were both above the issue price or both below it. We also show the share of IPOs where the listing gain was within 5 percentage points of the GMP. The error is GMP % minus listing gain %, so a positive error means the grey market overstated the gain.
Which GMP reading is used?
The last reading we stored on or before the closing date of bidding, and no more than two days before it. A reading from earlier than that is not a close-of-bidding reading, so that IPO is left out instead of being counted.
Which listing price is used?
The single listing price we show for each IPO (“Listed at ₹…” on its page), compared with the issue price (the upper end of the price band). The closing price of the day, or the price a week later, can be very different.
Why are only some IPOs included?
Only IPOs this site tracked from before they closed, and that have since listed, can be compared. We did not collect GMP before we started tracking, and we never fill gaps with guesses. The list grows with every listing.
Does a good track record mean GMP is a safe guide?
No. A sample of past IPOs says how GMP has behaved, not how it will behave on the next IPO, and a GMP that was close on average can still be far off on any single one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.